Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Ryan wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Stepan 46.6% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 18-13 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Ryan 58.2%
Defensive zone
Ryan 81.9%
Neutral zone
Ryan 81.4%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 72.6%
72.6%
27.4%
Ryan
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
13
(31 meetings)
18
13
Ryan
Stepan
Last 10: Ryan 6-4 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
8
4
Ryan
Stepan
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
7
3
Ryan
Stepan
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
6
Ryan
Stepan
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
46.5% (10,204)
+10.1%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
48.8% (1,593)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
44.2% (1,368)
+3.6%
On even strength, Ryan has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Ryan is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Ryan shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Home / Away
Ryan
Stepan
Home
56.2% (2,559)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Ryan
Stepan
P1
55.1%
47.5%
P2
54.7%
45.6%
P3
56.0%
46.8%
OT
58.3%
40.7%
Final 5 min
52.5%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2020 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 3 | 01:44 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 1 | 04:29 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 04:41 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 2 | 01:03 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 1 | 14:02 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 11:51 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 08:29 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 18, 2019 | 3 | 05:48 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 18, 2019 | 2 | 04:56 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 18, 2019 | 1 | 17:14 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 18, 2019 | 1 | 15:03 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 2 | 15:16 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 2 | 02:40 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 25, 2018 | 3 | 03:39 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 25, 2018 | 1 | 19:51 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 25, 2018 | 1 | 17:02 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 4, 2017 | OT | 04:34 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 4, 2017 | OT | 01:29 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |