Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ryan wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.9% vs Stepan 47.9% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 86.4%
Defensive zone
Ryan 62.7%
Neutral zone
Ryan 88.1%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
Ryan
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Ryan
Stepan
Last 5: Ryan 4-1 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Stepan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
1
Ryan
Stepan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (816)
47.0% (1,210)
+9.5%
Power Play
55.2% (105)
51.7% (232)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
63.2% (19)
47.2% (108)
+16.0%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Ryan is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (298).
Ryan shoots right. Stepan is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Ryan
Stepan
Home
56.7% (466)
48.2% (761)
Away
56.3% (474)
47.3% (789)
By Period
Ryan
Stepan
P1
55.4%
46.3%
P2
58.1%
50.4%
P3
55.8%
46.3%
OT
66.7%
55.2%
Final 5 min
55.6%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
56.5%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2017 | OT | 04:34 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 4, 2017 | OT | 01:29 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 3 | 18:53 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 3 | 18:38 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 2 | 17:45 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |