Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 57.5% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 51.5% vs Spezza 55.7% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 64.1%
Defensive zone
Ryan 61.4%
Neutral zone
Ryan 61.3%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Ryan
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Ryan
Spezza
Last 5: Ryan 1-4 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
2
Ryan
Spezza
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Ryan
Spezza
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Ryan
Spezza
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (245)
57.9% (292)
-3.6%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
62.3% (53)
-24.8%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (41)
52.9% (138)
-11.4%
On power play, Spezza has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Ryan is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (80).
Ryan shoots right. Spezza is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Ryan
Spezza
Home
50.9% (167)
58.4% (238)
Away
53.5% (127)
55.5% (245)
By Period
Ryan
Spezza
P1
44.0%
59.2%
P2
61.7%
54.8%
P3
50.5%
57.4%
Final 5 min
54.2%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
52.0%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2021 | 3 | 01:51 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 3 | 08:16 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 2 | 17:47 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |