Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 54.7%). Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 9 meetings). Ryan wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Spezza 54.7% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 71.4%
Defensive zone
Ryan 65.8%
Neutral zone
Ryan 55.7%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 59.2%
40.8%
59.2%
Ryan
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
Ryan
Spezza
Last 10: Ryan 4-6 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
5
Ryan
Spezza
9 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
Spezza
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Ryan
Spezza
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
54.4% (7,990)
+2.2%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
56.8% (1,726)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
52.7% (643)
-4.9%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Ryan is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Ryan shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Ryan
Spezza
Home
56.2% (2,559)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Ryan
Spezza
P1
55.1%
55.7%
P2
54.7%
54.4%
P3
56.0%
54.1%
OT
58.3%
51.5%
Final 5 min
52.5%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2021 | 3 | 01:51 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 3 | 08:16 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 2 | 17:47 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 2 | 08:01 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 1 | 16:57 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 27, 2019 | 2 | 14:04 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 27, 2019 | 1 | 05:42 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 3 | 13:15 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 13, 2017 | 3 | 11:08 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 13, 2017 | 3 | 08:46 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 13, 2017 | 2 | 01:44 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 14:23 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 10:09 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |