Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 16 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Toews 57.9% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 23-23 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 62.7%
Defensive zone
Ryan 70.4%
Neutral zone
Ryan 60.7%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Ryan
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
23
(46 meetings)
23
23
Ryan
Toews
Last 10: Ryan 6-4 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
5
11
Ryan
Toews
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
14
11
Ryan
Toews
25 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
4
1
Ryan
Toews
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
57.2% (13,047)
-0.6%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
63.3% (3,252)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
53.6% (1,810)
-5.8%
On power play, Toews has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Toews is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (6,486).
Home / Away
Ryan
Toews
Home
56.2% (2,559)
59.7% (9,192)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
56.1% (8,948)
By Period
Ryan
Toews
P1
55.1%
58.6%
P2
54.7%
57.8%
P3
56.0%
57.3%
OT
58.3%
58.9%
Final 5 min
52.5%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 15:18 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 12:20 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 07:50 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 10:06 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 07:11 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 3 | 15:25 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 3 | 01:57 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 18:21 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 09:18 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 1 | 19:45 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 1 | 00:46 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 02:57 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:01 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 2 | 08:12 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 08:21 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 02:17 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 02:13 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 2 | 15:03 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 2 | 12:44 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 18:49 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |