Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 54.9%). Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Ryan wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Toews 54.6% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 67.7%
Defensive zone
Toews 56.6%
Neutral zone
Ryan 54.3%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Ryan
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Ryan
Toews
Last 8: Ryan 2-6 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
3
Ryan
Toews
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
2
Ryan
Toews
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
0
1
Ryan
Toews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (576)
54.8% (1,153)
+0.1%
Power Play
59.8% (112)
58.8% (233)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (19)
50.0% (166)
-7.9%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Ryan is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (478).
Ryan shoots right. Toews is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Ryan
Toews
Home
57.7% (355)
58.7% (784)
Away
52.8% (352)
51.0% (768)
By Period
Ryan
Toews
P1
57.9%
54.0%
P2
53.2%
57.4%
P3
54.8%
52.6%
OT
100.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
51.6%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Toews
52.0%▼
58.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2017 | 2 | 18:24 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 2 | 12:42 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 2 | 05:23 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 1 | 11:43 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 1 | 06:01 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 1 | 05:52 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 30, 2016 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 30, 2016 | 2 | 11:34 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |