Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Ryan wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 50.0% vs Scheifele 48.1% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 88.0%
Defensive zone
Ryan 74.3%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 63.2%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 75.5%
24.5%
75.5%
Ryan
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Ryan
Scheifele
Last 5: Ryan 1-4 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
4
Ryan
Scheifele
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Scheifele
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (344)
47.8% (960)
+3.1%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
47.0% (219)
+28.0%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (86)
60.7% (28)
-15.4%
On power play, Ryan has a +28.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Ryan is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (98).
Ryan shoots right. Scheifele is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (374).
Home / Away
Ryan
Scheifele
Home
53.7% (214)
50.7% (611)
Away
46.4% (220)
45.1% (596)
By Period
Ryan
Scheifele
P1
45.0%
51.4%
P2
50.0%
47.3%
P3
54.6%
45.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
50.0%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 17:09 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 03:13 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 13:57 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 17:23 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 17:19 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |