Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 55.6% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.9% vs Patrick 48.9% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 57.3%
Defensive zone
Ryan 91.8%
Neutral zone
Ryan 84.5%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 77.7%
77.7%
22.3%
Ryan
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Ryan
Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
0
1
Ryan
Patrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
0
Ryan
Patrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
60.2% (387)
47.4% (156)
+12.8%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
56.3% (16)
-27.7%
On power play, Patrick has a +27.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Ryan is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (142).
Ryan shoots right. Patrick is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (60).
Home / Away
Ryan
Patrick
Home
56.7% (254)
43.8% (96)
Away
55.0% (258)
53.9% (76)
By Period
Ryan
Patrick
P1
56.9%
44.4%
P2
51.7%
45.6%
P3
59.2%
56.0%
Final 5 min
53.6%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2021 | 2 | 03:55 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 2 | 01:25 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 2 | 01:21 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 06:33 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |