Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Ryan wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Patrick 51.0% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Ryan 72.6%
Defensive zone
Ryan 89.3%
Neutral zone
Ryan 87.9%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 81.7%
81.7%
18.3%
Ryan
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
4
(16 meetings)
12
4
Ryan
Patrick
Last 10: Ryan 8-2 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
5
2
Ryan
Patrick
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
4
2
Ryan
Patrick
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
0
Ryan
Patrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
50.6% (1,978)
+6.0%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
57.5% (120)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
57.7% (26)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Patrick has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Ryan is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Ryan shoots right. Patrick is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (683).
Home / Away
Ryan
Patrick
Home
56.2% (2,559)
49.7% (1,106)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
52.5% (1,018)
By Period
Ryan
Patrick
P1
55.1%
52.9%
P2
54.7%
49.1%
P3
56.0%
51.3%
OT
58.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
52.5%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2021 | 2 | 03:55 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 2 | 01:25 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 2 | 01:21 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 06:33 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 2 | 06:52 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 1 | 03:06 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 2 | 19:11 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 1 | 18:24 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 3 | 06:55 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 2 | 19:16 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 2 | 15:10 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 2 | 07:02 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 1 | 11:18 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 1 | 08:08 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Feb 6, 2018 | 2 | 17:50 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |