Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 59.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 57.2% vs Bozak 53.9% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bozak 62.2%
Defensive zone
Ryan 50.3%
Neutral zone
Ryan 51.7%
Result
Tyler Bozak favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Ryan
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Ryan
Bozak
Last 5: Ryan 2-3 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
Bozak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
2
Ryan
Bozak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (594)
55.4% (719)
+3.7%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
45.1% (51)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (107)
50.0% (60)
+7.9%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Ryan is 59.9% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Ryan shoots right. Bozak is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (263).
Home / Away
Ryan
Bozak
Home
57.0% (398)
55.5% (443)
Away
59.5% (358)
53.0% (387)
By Period
Ryan
Bozak
P1
56.2%
53.3%
P2
56.9%
54.7%
P3
61.1%
55.4%
Final 5 min
56.1%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
58.2%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 05:40 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 04:47 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 3 | 09:20 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 2 | 15:43 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 1 | 01:31 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |