Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Ryan wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Bozak 53.4% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 11-10 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Bozak 55.9%
Defensive zone
Ryan 61.6%
Neutral zone
Ryan 60.3%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Ryan
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
10
(21 meetings)
11
10
Ryan
Bozak
Last 10: Ryan 6-4 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
2
3
Ryan
Bozak
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
5
5
Ryan
Bozak
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
4
2
Ryan
Bozak
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
53.7% (9,596)
+2.9%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
55.2% (1,990)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
48.0% (1,094)
-0.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Ryan is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Ryan shoots right. Bozak is 56.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,312).
Home / Away
Ryan
Bozak
Home
56.2% (2,559)
56.0% (6,333)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
51.0% (6,396)
By Period
Ryan
Bozak
P1
55.1%
53.2%
P2
54.7%
52.8%
P3
56.0%
54.5%
OT
58.3%
52.9%
Final 5 min
52.5%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2021 | 2 | 17:24 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 3 | 07:48 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 3 | 01:48 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 28, 2020 | 3 | 01:36 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 28, 2020 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 28, 2020 | 2 | 05:56 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 2 | 10:57 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 1 | 12:54 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 05:40 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 04:47 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 3 | 09:20 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 2 | 15:43 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 1 | 01:31 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 3 | 14:57 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 2 | 13:37 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 1 | 01:17 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 2 | 01:07 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 2 | 01:29 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 1 | 00:18 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |