Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 55.6% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.9% vs Bozak 46.2% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 65.8%
Defensive zone
Ryan 86.9%
Neutral zone
Ryan 81.6%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 80.3%
80.3%
19.7%
Ryan
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Ryan
Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
1
Ryan
Bozak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
Bozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Bozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
60.2% (387)
46.7% (338)
+13.5%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
50.0% (6)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
32.6% (43)
+10.6%
On power play, Bozak has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Ryan is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (142).
Ryan shoots right. Bozak is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Ryan
Bozak
Home
56.7% (254)
47.9% (194)
Away
55.0% (258)
42.5% (193)
By Period
Ryan
Bozak
P1
56.9%
40.2%
P2
51.7%
51.4%
P3
59.2%
43.1%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.6%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2021 | 2 | 17:24 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 3 | 07:48 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 3 | 01:48 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |