Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Matthews wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 51.7% vs Stepan 50.0% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 14-6 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 80.7%
Defensive zone
Matthews 73.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 71.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 75.6%
75.6%
24.4%
Matthews
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
6
(20 meetings)
14
6
Matthews
Stepan
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
2
Matthews
Stepan
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
8
3
Matthews
Stepan
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Stepan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (795)
52.7% (207)
-0.5%
Power Play
52.5% (40)
50.0% (26)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (32)
29.6% (27)
+14.2%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Matthews is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Matthews shoots left. Stepan is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Matthews
Stepan
Home
53.5% (454)
46.0% (113)
Away
50.1% (413)
53.1% (147)
By Period
Matthews
Stepan
P1
54.8%
48.5%
P2
52.2%
49.4%
P3
48.1%
52.6%
Final 5 min
54.1%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
51.9%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2021 | 3 | 07:52 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 1 | 07:40 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 3 | 19:20 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 3 | 16:31 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 3 | 16:18 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 2 | 15:04 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 2 | 04:41 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 1 | 19:57 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 1 | 14:30 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 1 | 10:27 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 18:14 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 03:44 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 2 | 07:17 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 1 | 14:32 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 1 | 10:29 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 06:35 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 00:27 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 13:50 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 01:06 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 3 | 05:56 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |