Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 47.7%). Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 42.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.5% vs Stepan 47.9% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 55.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.8%
Neutral zone
Stepan 54.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Nelson
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Nelson
Stepan
Last 6: Nelson 2-4 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
2
Nelson
Stepan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Stepan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
2
Nelson
Stepan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (681)
47.0% (1,210)
+1.0%
Power Play
54.0% (87)
51.7% (232)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (37)
47.2% (108)
-6.7%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Nelson is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (250).
Nelson shoots left. Stepan is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,079).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stepan
Home
51.1% (399)
48.2% (761)
Away
45.6% (406)
47.3% (789)
By Period
Nelson
Stepan
P1
51.8%
46.3%
P2
47.5%
50.4%
P3
46.5%
46.3%
OT
20.0%
55.2%
Final 5 min
51.1%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2017 | 2 | 14:40 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 2 | 14:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 2 | 14:25 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 1 | 00:40 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |