Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.7% vs Larkin 52.3% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 82.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 56.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 74.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 69.3%
30.7%
69.3%
Stepan
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Stepan
Larkin
Last 9: Stepan 6-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Stepan
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
4
0
Stepan
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (877)
51.0% (973)
-3.7%
Power Play
54.4% (103)
59.5% (252)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (217)
49.6% (137)
-4.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Stepan is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Stepan shoots right. Larkin is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Home / Away
Stepan
Larkin
Home
50.4% (560)
54.9% (721)
Away
45.1% (637)
49.6% (641)
By Period
Stepan
Larkin
P1
47.4%
52.4%
P2
47.0%
50.8%
P3
48.1%
54.4%
OT
50.0%
43.8%
Final 5 min
48.7%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.5%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2019 | 3 | 10:34 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 3 | 10:26 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 3 | 07:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 2 | 09:10 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 18:26 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 15:16 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 11:32 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 08:58 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 05:34 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |