Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Larkin 52.1% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 62.3%
Defensive zone
Stepan 80.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 57.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 70.1%
70.1%
29.9%
Stepan
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Stepan
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Larkin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
51.8% (903)
+2.7%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
56.0% (225)
-56.0%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
47.4% (76)
+17.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +56.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Larkin is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (483).
Home / Away
Stepan
Larkin
Home
54.5% (222)
55.6% (662)
Away
57.2% (222)
48.3% (542)
By Period
Stepan
Larkin
P1
57.5%
49.9%
P2
54.7%
52.7%
P3
55.9%
53.0%
Final 5 min
57.5%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 01:16 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 16:54 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 10:14 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 1 | 10:05 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |