Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 54.4%). Stepan wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Larkin 54.1% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 67.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 51.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 50.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Stepan
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Stepan
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
53.6% (886)
+1.7%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
59.3% (317)
-59.3%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
48.7% (152)
+2.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +59.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Stepan shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Stepan
Larkin
Home
57.7% (213)
56.6% (700)
Away
50.7% (209)
52.1% (655)
By Period
Stepan
Larkin
P1
56.3%
55.4%
P2
48.9%
54.7%
P3
57.1%
52.7%
Final 5 min
57.6%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 14:31 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |