Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Staal 46.6% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 71.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 55.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 58.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
Stepan
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Stepan
Staal
Last 7: Stepan 4-3 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Staal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Stepan
Staal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
49.6% (565)
+5.7%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
35.0% (20)
-35.0%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
35.4% (158)
+15.4%
On power play, Staal has a +35.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Stepan shoots right. Staal is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (268).
Home / Away
Stepan
Staal
Home
57.7% (213)
46.1% (380)
Away
50.7% (209)
46.3% (363)
By Period
Stepan
Staal
P1
56.3%
45.7%
P2
48.9%
46.2%
P3
57.1%
46.5%
Final 5 min
57.6%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2022 | 3 | 15:40 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 2 | 16:03 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 1 | 10:26 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 1 | 07:05 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 2 | 13:59 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 1 | 05:58 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |