Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Beagle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.2% vs Beagle 55.8% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 91.2%
Defensive zone
Stepan 60.7%
Neutral zone
Stepan 74.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 66.7%
66.7%
33.3%
Stepan
Beagle
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Stepan
Beagle
Last 9: Stepan 2-7 Beagle
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
4
Stepan
Beagle
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
3
Stepan
Beagle
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Beagle
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (1,155)
56.8% (799)
-8.6%
Power Play
48.2% (193)
64.7% (17)
-16.5%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (174)
54.6% (291)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, Beagle has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beagle shoots right. Stepan is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (458).
Stepan shoots right. Beagle is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Home / Away
Stepan
Beagle
Home
46.4% (774)
57.6% (552)
Away
47.7% (748)
55.1% (555)
By Period
Stepan
Beagle
P1
46.7%
56.9%
P2
46.3%
59.0%
P3
48.1%
54.0%
OT
47.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.0%
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2017 | 3 | 05:42 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Apr 5, 2017 | 1 | 19:55 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Apr 5, 2017 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 3 | 14:30 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 3 | 08:56 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 1 | 11:03 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 1 | 08:52 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 19, 2017 | 2 | 09:18 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 19, 2017 | 1 | 16:20 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |