Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on defensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 25 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Beagle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Beagle 56.7% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Beagle leads 35-18 in 53 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 93.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 74.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 93.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 84.6%
84.6%
15.4%
Stepan
Beagle
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
35
(53 meetings)
18
35
Stepan
Beagle
Last 10: Stepan 6-4 Beagle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
5
4
Stepan
Beagle
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
7
18
Stepan
Beagle
25 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
6
13
Stepan
Beagle
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Beagle
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
57.5% (4,994)
-11.0%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
60.5% (119)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
54.2% (1,554)
-10.0%
On power play, Beagle has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beagle shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Beagle is 56.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,004).
Home / Away
Stepan
Beagle
Home
47.6% (6,608)
59.1% (3,228)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
54.5% (3,443)
By Period
Stepan
Beagle
P1
47.5%
57.4%
P2
45.6%
57.1%
P3
46.8%
56.2%
OT
40.7%
41.3%
Final 5 min
47.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 07:44 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 27, 2021 | 3 | 18:58 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 27, 2021 | 3 | 18:49 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 27, 2021 | 3 | 05:59 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 25, 2021 | 3 | 12:12 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 25, 2021 | 2 | 12:28 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 25, 2021 | 1 | 16:33 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 3 | 17:47 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 3 | 17:30 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 2 | 05:27 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 1 | 08:26 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 3 | 01:48 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 2 | 16:51 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 2 | 15:44 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 3 | 16:57 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 3 | 09:59 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 1 | 11:01 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 1 | 04:33 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 1 | 01:59 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 07:08 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |