Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.1% vs 44.0%). Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 44.5% vs Larsson 45.4% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 51.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 60.1%
Neutral zone
Larsson 58.0%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Stepan
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Stepan
Larsson
Last 6: Stepan 5-1 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Larsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Larsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Larsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (942)
45.2% (290)
-1.7%
Power Play
48.1% (162)
38.6% (44)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (128)
28.6% (7)
+14.4%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Stepan is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (812).
Stepan shoots right. Larsson is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (129).
Home / Away
Stepan
Larsson
Home
45.6% (629)
45.1% (153)
Away
42.5% (603)
43.1% (188)
By Period
Stepan
Larsson
P1
44.7%
45.3%
P2
43.7%
41.4%
P3
43.9%
44.0%
OT
40.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.1%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2015 | 2 | 03:21 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 19:32 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 14:22 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 06:16 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 20, 2015 | 2 | 08:05 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |