Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Larsson 49.5% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Larsson leads 17-17 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 77.5%
Defensive zone
Larsson 68.2%
Neutral zone
Larsson 51.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Stepan
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
17
(34 meetings)
17
17
Stepan
Larsson
Last 10: Stepan 4-6 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
8
3
Stepan
Larsson
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
5
9
Stepan
Larsson
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
4
5
Stepan
Larsson
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
50.5% (4,382)
-4.0%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
47.7% (153)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
43.8% (714)
+0.4%
On even strength, Larsson has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Larsson is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,847).
Home / Away
Stepan
Larsson
Home
47.6% (6,608)
51.2% (2,493)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
48.0% (2,756)
By Period
Stepan
Larsson
P1
47.5%
51.6%
P2
45.6%
49.7%
P3
46.8%
47.2%
OT
40.7%
52.3%
Final 5 min
47.5%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2021 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 2 | 09:55 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 16:55 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 08:43 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 04:51 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 28, 2019 | 3 | 10:57 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 28, 2019 | 2 | 18:59 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 28, 2019 | 2 | 11:11 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 28, 2019 | 1 | 08:30 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 28, 2019 | 1 | 05:42 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 13, 2018 | 3 | 17:18 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 13, 2018 | 3 | 05:49 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 09:46 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 06:27 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 3 | 00:24 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 2 | 13:09 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 2 | 10:19 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 3 | 08:28 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |