Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.5% vs 48.2%). Look for Larsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.7% vs Larsson 48.4% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 73.2%
Defensive zone
Larsson 66.7%
Neutral zone
Larsson 61.2%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Stepan
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Stepan
Larsson
Last 9: Stepan 3-6 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Larsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
0
5
Stepan
Larsson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Larsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (877)
48.4% (506)
-1.1%
Power Play
54.4% (103)
62.5% (24)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (217)
44.9% (138)
+0.3%
On power play, Larsson has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Stepan is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Stepan shoots right. Larsson is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (221).
Home / Away
Stepan
Larsson
Home
50.4% (560)
51.9% (335)
Away
45.1% (637)
44.4% (333)
By Period
Stepan
Larsson
P1
47.4%
48.7%
P2
47.0%
48.3%
P3
48.1%
48.1%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.5%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2020 | 2 | 09:55 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 16:55 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 08:43 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 04:51 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 28, 2019 | 3 | 10:57 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 28, 2019 | 2 | 18:59 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 28, 2019 | 2 | 11:11 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 28, 2019 | 1 | 08:30 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 28, 2019 | 1 | 05:42 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |