Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Toews 58.4% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 72.0%
Defensive zone
Stepan 76.0%
Neutral zone
Stepan 74.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Stepan
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Stepan
Toews
Last 5: Stepan 0-5 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
5
Stepan
Toews
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
58.0% (901)
-3.5%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
69.5% (226)
-69.5%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
51.7% (209)
+13.0%
On power play, Toews has a +69.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Toews is 63.5% vs right-shot opponents (515).
Home / Away
Stepan
Toews
Home
54.5% (222)
59.3% (637)
Away
57.2% (222)
58.7% (699)
By Period
Stepan
Toews
P1
57.5%
61.5%
P2
54.7%
55.2%
P3
55.9%
60.0%
Final 5 min
57.5%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2021 | 3 | 07:25 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 2 | 13:29 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 2 | 09:47 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 1 | 13:33 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 1 | 08:55 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |