Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +13.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dauphin on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Dauphin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Dauphin 44.4% (+13.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 51.2%
Defensive zone
Stepan 68.7%
Neutral zone
Stepan 51.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Stepan
Dauphin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Stepan
Dauphin
Last 6: Stepan 3-3 Dauphin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Dauphin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Dauphin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dauphin
1
3
Stepan
Dauphin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Dauphin
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
43.0% (214)
+11.5%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
55.6% (9)
-55.6%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
29.2% (24)
+35.5%
On power play, Dauphin has a +55.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dauphin shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Dauphin is 39.8% vs right-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Stepan
Dauphin
Home
54.5% (222)
47.2% (125)
Away
57.2% (222)
36.9% (122)
By Period
Stepan
Dauphin
P1
57.5%
42.0%
P2
54.7%
42.3%
P3
55.9%
43.0%
Final 5 min
57.5%
37.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Dauphin
60.0%▲
51.5%
42.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2022 | 3 | 18:15 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 3 | 05:16 | Neutral | Laurent Dauphin |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 05:50 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 05:43 | Neutral | Laurent Dauphin |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 1 | 19:48 | Neutral | Laurent Dauphin |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 1 | 14:58 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |