Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Kastelic 56.5% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 55.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 93.7%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 83.6%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
Stepan
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Stepan
Kastelic
Last 8: Stepan 5-3 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Kastelic
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
3
Stepan
Kastelic
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Kastelic
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
57.0% (1,613)
-10.5%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
80.0% (25)
-31.2%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
53.6% (274)
-9.4%
On power play, Kastelic has a +31.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Kastelic is 58.7% vs right-shot opponents (492).
Home / Away
Stepan
Kastelic
Home
47.6% (6,608)
58.9% (895)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
55.1% (1,017)
By Period
Stepan
Kastelic
P1
47.5%
58.5%
P2
45.6%
56.9%
P3
46.8%
55.3%
OT
40.7%
53.8%
Final 5 min
47.5%
59.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 14:56 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 3 | 02:52 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 06:06 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 06:02 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:50 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 14:42 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |