Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Kastelic 55.9% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 53.9%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 85.6%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 64.1%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
Stepan
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Stepan
Kastelic
Last 7: Stepan 5-2 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Kastelic
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
2
Stepan
Kastelic
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Kastelic
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
58.0% (476)
-2.7%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
75.0% (8)
-75.0%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
50.9% (106)
-0.1%
On power play, Kastelic has a +75.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Stepan is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (108).
Stepan shoots right. Kastelic is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Home / Away
Stepan
Kastelic
Home
57.7% (213)
64.9% (265)
Away
50.7% (209)
50.5% (325)
By Period
Stepan
Kastelic
P1
56.3%
58.5%
P2
48.9%
55.6%
P3
57.1%
56.8%
Final 5 min
57.6%
62.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 14:56 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 3 | 02:52 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 06:06 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 06:02 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:50 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |