Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 25 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Duchene 54.1% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 33-31 in 64 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 57.7%
Defensive zone
Stepan 54.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 59.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Stepan
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
33
(64 meetings)
31
33
Stepan
Duchene
Last 10: Stepan 5-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
7
18
Stepan
Duchene
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
15
9
Stepan
Duchene
24 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
9
6
Stepan
Duchene
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
54.0% (10,249)
-7.5%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
56.9% (1,620)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
49.3% (467)
-5.1%
On power play, Duchene has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,422).
Home / Away
Stepan
Duchene
Home
47.6% (6,608)
55.6% (6,270)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
52.7% (6,090)
By Period
Stepan
Duchene
P1
47.5%
54.5%
P2
45.6%
54.5%
P3
46.8%
53.4%
OT
40.7%
55.9%
Final 5 min
47.5%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 19:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 19:42 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 06:26 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 11:21 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 02:29 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 3 | 10:40 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 3 | 10:33 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 05:26 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 17:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 2 | 12:04 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 3 | 11:09 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 3 | 05:13 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 2 | 13:46 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 1 | 14:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 1 | 13:28 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 1 | 04:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 3 | 14:32 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 3 | 08:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 2 | 07:26 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |