Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Duchene 52.8% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 79.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 87.4%
Neutral zone
Stepan 62.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Stepan
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stepan
Duchene
Last 5: Stepan 3-2 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Stepan
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
46.9% (162)
+7.6%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
73.2% (56)
-73.2%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
100.0% (2)
-35.3%
On power play, Duchene has a +73.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Duchene is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Home / Away
Stepan
Duchene
Home
54.5% (222)
58.4% (125)
Away
57.2% (222)
48.4% (95)
By Period
Stepan
Duchene
P1
57.5%
56.9%
P2
54.7%
52.5%
P3
55.9%
51.9%
Final 5 min
57.5%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 19:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 19:42 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 06:26 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 11:21 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 02:29 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |