Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 41.4% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.2% vs Bjugstad 44.4% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 58.9%
Defensive zone
Stepan 62.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 60.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Stepan
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stepan
Bjugstad
Last 5: Stepan 3-2 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Bjugstad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Bjugstad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
Stepan
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (750)
37.8% (119)
+10.2%
Power Play
36.3% (113)
60.0% (10)
-23.7%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (113)
66.7% (3)
-25.1%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +25.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Stepan is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (360).
Stepan shoots right. Bjugstad is 35.9% vs right-shot opponents (39).
Home / Away
Stepan
Bjugstad
Home
47.4% (460)
40.7% (59)
Away
44.5% (517)
39.7% (73)
By Period
Stepan
Bjugstad
P1
50.3%
44.7%
P2
38.4%
38.1%
P3
49.4%
37.2%
Final 5 min
48.1%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
45.9%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
40.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2013 | 3 | 02:35 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 2 | 17:29 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 1 | 13:10 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 18, 2013 | 1 | 18:57 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |