Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.9% vs 55.3%). Stepan wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Bjugstad 53.8% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 52.2%
Defensive zone
Stepan 55.7%
Neutral zone
Stepan 50.4%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Stepan
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Stepan
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Stepan
Bjugstad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
55.9% (245)
-1.4%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
0.0% (3)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
57.1% (7)
+7.6%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Stepan is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Stepan shoots right. Bjugstad is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (57).
Home / Away
Stepan
Bjugstad
Home
54.5% (222)
53.2% (111)
Away
57.2% (222)
56.9% (144)
By Period
Stepan
Bjugstad
P1
57.5%
44.6%
P2
54.7%
61.4%
P3
55.9%
61.3%
Final 5 min
57.5%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 19:44 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 07:24 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 08:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 10:20 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |