Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Suzuki 49.6% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Suzuki 60.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 69.5%
Neutral zone
Suzuki 56.4%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Stepan
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Stepan
Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Suzuki
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Suzuki
0
1
Stepan
Suzuki
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
50.3% (1,075)
+4.2%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
49.3% (219)
-49.3%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
43.1% (116)
+21.6%
On power play, Suzuki has a +49.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Stepan is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Stepan shoots right. Suzuki is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Home / Away
Stepan
Suzuki
Home
54.5% (222)
53.6% (711)
Away
57.2% (222)
45.5% (699)
By Period
Stepan
Suzuki
P1
57.5%
48.5%
P2
54.7%
51.7%
P3
55.9%
49.0%
Final 5 min
57.5%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2021 | 3 | 12:08 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 1 | 19:55 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |