Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Brown on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Brown shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Brown 54.6% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 86.1%
Defensive zone
Brown 54.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 69.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 74.0%
74.0%
26.0%
Stepan
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Stepan
Brown
Last 8: Stepan 2-6 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Brown
2
3
Stepan
Brown
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brown
0
2
Stepan
Brown
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Brown
0
1
Stepan
Brown
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
56.5% (726)
-10.0%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
62.5% (8)
-13.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
47.8% (136)
-3.6%
On power play, Brown has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Brown is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Stepan
Brown
Home
47.6% (6,608)
57.4% (364)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
53.6% (506)
By Period
Stepan
Brown
P1
47.5%
51.4%
P2
45.6%
54.6%
P3
46.8%
58.8%
OT
40.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 05:43 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 03:57 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 2 | 19:18 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 2 | 06:47 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 1 | 15:22 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 1 | 01:11 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |