Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on neutral-zone draws (65% H2H, 40 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Stastny 55.1% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 70-60 in 130 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 63.3%
Defensive zone
Stepan 57.8%
Neutral zone
Stepan 66.4%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Stepan
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
60
-
70
(130 meetings)
60
70
Stepan
Stastny
Last 10: Stepan 7-3 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
26
22
Stepan
Stastny
48 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
20
22
Stepan
Stastny
42 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
14
26
Stepan
Stastny
40 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
54.6% (10,616)
-8.1%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
59.1% (1,994)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
52.9% (1,119)
-8.7%
On power play, Stastny has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Home / Away
Stepan
Stastny
Home
47.6% (6,608)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Stepan
Stastny
P1
47.5%
56.3%
P2
45.6%
55.4%
P3
46.8%
53.5%
OT
40.7%
62.9%
Final 5 min
47.5%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2021 | 3 | 08:29 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 2 | 08:29 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 2 | 05:54 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 2 | 05:43 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 1 | 16:42 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 2 | 14:56 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 1 | 09:49 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 1 | 14:28 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 2 | 15:45 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 2 | 14:12 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 1 | 18:21 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 1 | 11:44 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 1 | 11:08 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 1 | 05:49 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 1 | 00:27 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 3 | 17:13 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 3 | 16:58 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 2 | 01:54 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 06:31 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |