Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +14.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 38.4% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 39.9% vs Stastny 53.0% (-14.6%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 81.9%
Defensive zone
Stepan 80.0%
Neutral zone
Stepan 82.7%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 81.2%
81.2%
18.8%
Stepan
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Stepan
Stastny
Last 10: Stepan 2-8 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Stastny
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
4
Stepan
Stastny
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
3
Stepan
Stastny
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
38.6% (630)
52.2% (1,107)
-13.6%
Power Play
45.3% (64)
61.0% (254)
-15.7%
Penalty Kill
22.7% (22)
46.4% (138)
-23.7%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Stepan is 38.4% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Stepan shoots right. Stastny is 59.4% vs right-shot opponents (465).
Home / Away
Stepan
Stastny
Home
39.0% (364)
52.5% (785)
Away
38.0% (355)
53.9% (739)
By Period
Stepan
Stastny
P1
39.4%
51.3%
P2
40.6%
55.2%
P3
36.4%
52.6%
OT
12.5%
62.5%
Final 5 min
40.4%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
38.5%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2010 | 3 | 12:53 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 19, 2010 | 3 | 08:58 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 19, 2010 | 3 | 04:58 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 19, 2010 | 3 | 01:52 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 19, 2010 | 2 | 01:18 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 19, 2010 | 1 | 01:00 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 18, 2010 | 2 | 17:02 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 18, 2010 | 1 | 17:23 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 18, 2010 | 1 | 17:01 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 18, 2010 | 1 | 14:05 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |