Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.5% vs 45.7%). Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Krebs 45.9% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 70.9%
Defensive zone
Krebs 53.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 53.7%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Stepan
Krebs
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Stepan
Krebs
Last 8: Stepan 5-3 Krebs
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Krebs
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Krebs
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
2
Stepan
Krebs
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Krebs
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
46.0% (2,159)
+0.5%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
52.5% (99)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
38.6% (171)
+5.6%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Krebs shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Krebs is 48.8% vs right-shot opponents (885).
Home / Away
Stepan
Krebs
Home
47.6% (6,608)
45.7% (1,182)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
45.8% (1,247)
By Period
Stepan
Krebs
P1
47.5%
45.9%
P2
45.6%
46.4%
P3
46.8%
44.8%
OT
40.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
47.5%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Krebs
48.0%▲
45.0%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 03:00 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 1, 2023 | 1 | 02:50 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 1, 2023 | 1 | 02:35 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 3 | 19:23 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 3 | 17:46 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 3 | 09:22 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 1 | 11:34 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 1 | 08:07 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |