Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kupari on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Kupari shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Kupari 44.4% (+13.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kupari 67.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 73.7%
Neutral zone
Kupari 52.0%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Stepan
Kupari
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Stepan
Kupari
Last 5: Stepan 2-3 Kupari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Kupari
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kupari
0
1
Stepan
Kupari
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kupari
1
2
Stepan
Kupari
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Kupari
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
42.9% (275)
+11.6%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
35.7% (14)
-35.7%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
42.9% (14)
+21.8%
On power play, Kupari has a +35.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kupari shoots right. Stepan is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Stepan shoots right. Kupari is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (81).
Home / Away
Stepan
Kupari
Home
54.5% (222)
46.6% (163)
Away
57.2% (222)
37.9% (140)
By Period
Stepan
Kupari
P1
57.5%
38.7%
P2
54.7%
42.5%
P3
55.9%
47.0%
Final 5 min
57.5%
41.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Kupari
48.0%▼
51.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2021 | 3 | 19:08 | Neutral | Rasmus Kupari |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 2 | 09:36 | Neutral | Rasmus Kupari |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 1 | 12:37 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 1 | 01:36 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 08:21 | Defensive | Rasmus Kupari |