Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 45.9%). Look for Nash on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 44.8% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 45.5% vs Nash 46.5% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 50.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 66.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 50.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Stepan
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Stepan
Nash
Last 9: Stepan 2-7 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nash
1
3
Stepan
Nash
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nash
0
3
Stepan
Nash
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Nash
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
43.8% (1,141)
46.0% (615)
-2.2%
Power Play
52.2% (253)
58.6% (29)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
27.3% (22)
+15.9%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Stepan is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (484).
Stepan shoots right. Nash is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (215).
Home / Away
Stepan
Nash
Home
47.8% (828)
54.1% (320)
Away
42.0% (684)
38.4% (346)
By Period
Stepan
Nash
P1
49.5%
44.8%
P2
42.0%
47.5%
P3
44.3%
44.9%
OT
41.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
45.2%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2014 | 2 | 16:32 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Mar 11, 2014 | 3 | 12:33 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 11, 2014 | 1 | 10:51 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Mar 11, 2014 | 1 | 10:36 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Mar 7, 2014 | 3 | 19:19 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 2, 2013 | 2 | 16:44 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Nov 2, 2013 | 2 | 01:46 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Nov 2, 2013 | 2 | 01:22 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Nov 2, 2013 | 1 | 01:12 | Offensive | Riley Nash |