Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.5% vs Nash 46.2% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 73.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 57.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 57.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Stepan
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Stepan
Nash
Last 9: Stepan 7-2 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Nash
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nash
1
2
Stepan
Nash
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
5
0
Stepan
Nash
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (991)
46.1% (306)
+0.7%
Power Play
48.8% (211)
16.7% (6)
+32.1%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (174)
38.1% (21)
+10.2%
On power play, Stepan has a +32.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Stepan is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (418).
Stepan shoots right. Nash is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (103).
Home / Away
Stepan
Nash
Home
48.6% (666)
46.5% (157)
Away
46.1% (710)
43.8% (176)
By Period
Stepan
Nash
P1
46.3%
47.7%
P2
50.7%
39.8%
P3
45.5%
47.2%
Final 5 min
42.9%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.3%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2019 | 3 | 15:34 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 3 | 14:54 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 3 | 05:44 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 3 | 04:31 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 2 | 13:00 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 2 | 08:42 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 2 | 05:54 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 1 | 17:15 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 1 | 17:01 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |