Scouting Report
Ross Colton holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Colton 51.0% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Colton 53.2%
Defensive zone
Colton 66.7%
Neutral zone
Colton 67.9%
Result
Ross Colton favored at 63.4%
36.6%
63.4%
Stepan
Colton
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Stepan
Colton
Last 7: Stepan 6-1 Colton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Colton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Colton
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Colton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Colton
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
51.6% (1,788)
-5.1%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
48.4% (159)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
34.5% (29)
+9.7%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Colton shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Colton is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (693).
Home / Away
Stepan
Colton
Home
47.6% (6,608)
51.9% (1,004)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
50.2% (972)
By Period
Stepan
Colton
P1
47.5%
53.3%
P2
45.6%
52.6%
P3
46.8%
47.9%
OT
40.7%
25.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Colton
38.0%▼
41.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2023 | 3 | 03:12 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 01:48 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 1 | 17:40 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 02:06 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 01:47 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 10:17 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |