Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Colton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Colton 51.8% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 57.9%
Defensive zone
Stepan 83.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 61.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 65.2%
65.2%
34.8%
Stepan
Colton
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Stepan
Colton
Last 5: Stepan 4-1 Colton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Colton
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Colton
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Colton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Colton
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
52.7% (524)
+1.8%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
50.9% (53)
-50.9%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
0.0% (4)
+64.7%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +64.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Colton shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Colton is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Stepan
Colton
Home
54.5% (222)
52.9% (291)
Away
57.2% (222)
51.4% (290)
By Period
Stepan
Colton
P1
57.5%
50.6%
P2
54.7%
54.4%
P3
55.9%
51.6%
Final 5 min
57.5%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Colton
44.0%▲
42.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2022 | 1 | 17:40 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 02:06 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 01:47 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 10:17 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |