Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.5% vs 45.9%). Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Gagner 46.0% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 19-13 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Gagner 55.2%
Defensive zone
Stepan 66.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 53.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Stepan
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
13
(32 meetings)
19
13
Stepan
Gagner
Last 10: Stepan 6-4 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
9
2
Stepan
Gagner
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
5
6
Stepan
Gagner
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Stepan
Gagner
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
45.4% (4,699)
+1.1%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
51.5% (928)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
35.0% (226)
+9.2%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Gagner is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,684).
Home / Away
Stepan
Gagner
Home
47.6% (6,608)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Stepan
Gagner
P1
47.5%
44.6%
P2
45.6%
46.1%
P3
46.8%
47.3%
OT
40.7%
42.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2019 | 2 | 18:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 24, 2019 | 2 | 09:50 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 24, 2019 | 1 | 18:54 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 4, 2019 | 1 | 10:57 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 2 | 12:04 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 1 | 04:36 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 3 | 02:06 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 2 | 03:28 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 1 | 02:57 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 3 | 06:15 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 2 | 17:08 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 2 | 14:11 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 2 | 08:33 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 2 | 08:06 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 1 | 01:02 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 13, 2017 | 2 | 00:12 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 2 | 18:05 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 2 | 08:03 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 3 | 11:03 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 3 | 02:48 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |