Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Gagner 47.5% (+9.2%)
Offensive zone
Stepan 54.3%
Defensive zone
Stepan 52.6%
Neutral zone
Stepan 51.1%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Stepan
Gagner
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
51.3% (158)
+3.2%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
66.7% (36)
-66.7%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
33.6% (110)
+31.1%
On power play, Gagner has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Stepan is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Stepan shoots right. Gagner is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (64).
Home / Away
Stepan
Gagner
Home
54.5% (222)
53.2% (154)
Away
57.2% (222)
40.0% (150)
By Period
Stepan
Gagner
P1
57.5%
35.6%
P2
54.7%
52.7%
P3
55.9%
51.9%
Final 5 min
57.5%
34.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.7%