Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.0% vs 47.5%). Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Stepan wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.2% vs Gagner 48.0% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Gagner 68.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 62.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 53.4%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Stepan
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Stepan
Gagner
Last 10: Stepan 6-4 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
5
1
Stepan
Gagner
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Stepan
Gagner
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Stepan
Gagner
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (1,155)
46.5% (310)
+1.7%
Power Play
48.2% (193)
50.4% (115)
-2.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Stepan is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (458).
Stepan shoots right. Gagner is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (135).
Home / Away
Stepan
Gagner
Home
46.4% (774)
52.4% (212)
Away
47.7% (748)
42.7% (213)
By Period
Stepan
Gagner
P1
46.7%
46.2%
P2
46.3%
52.2%
P3
48.1%
43.6%
OT
47.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.7%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.0%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2017 | 3 | 06:15 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 2 | 17:08 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 2 | 14:11 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 2 | 08:33 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 2 | 08:06 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 1 | 01:02 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 13, 2017 | 2 | 00:12 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 2 | 18:05 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 2 | 08:03 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 3 | 11:03 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 3 | 02:48 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |