Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Kuraly 49.7% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 84.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 72.6%
Neutral zone
Stepan 55.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Stepan
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Stepan
Kuraly
Last 10: Stepan 5-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
2
Stepan
Kuraly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
3
Stepan
Kuraly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
49.2% (901)
+6.1%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
68.2% (22)
-68.2%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
49.8% (219)
+1.0%
On power play, Kuraly has a +68.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Stepan shoots right. Kuraly is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (378).
Home / Away
Stepan
Kuraly
Home
57.7% (213)
51.7% (603)
Away
50.7% (209)
47.3% (539)
By Period
Stepan
Kuraly
P1
56.3%
50.9%
P2
48.9%
49.5%
P3
57.1%
49.1%
Final 5 min
57.6%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2023 | 1 | 02:57 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 3 | 19:48 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 3 | 01:36 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2 | 18:30 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2 | 08:10 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2 | 05:12 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2 | 03:00 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2 | 00:17 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 1 | 16:01 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 1 | 10:13 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |