Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Monahan 52.8% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 71.2%
Defensive zone
Stepan 77.0%
Neutral zone
Stepan 52.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Stepan
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Stepan
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Stepan
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Stepan
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
51.5% (641)
+3.0%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
62.8% (129)
-62.8%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
33.3% (9)
+31.4%
On power play, Monahan has a +62.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Monahan is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Stepan
Monahan
Home
54.5% (222)
53.9% (362)
Away
57.2% (222)
52.5% (417)
By Period
Stepan
Monahan
P1
57.5%
48.0%
P2
54.7%
57.0%
P3
55.9%
54.1%
Final 5 min
57.5%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2022 | 3 | 19:05 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 7, 2022 | 2 | 18:48 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 7, 2022 | 1 | 09:34 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |