Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.9% vs Aho 47.1% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 64.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 64.9%
Neutral zone
Aho 52.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Stepan
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Stepan
Aho
Last 5: Stepan 2-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Stepan
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (1,210)
45.5% (165)
+1.5%
Power Play
51.7% (232)
42.9% (7)
+8.8%
On power play, Stepan has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Stepan is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,079).
Stepan shoots right. Aho is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (74).
Home / Away
Stepan
Aho
Home
48.2% (761)
50.6% (79)
Away
47.3% (789)
40.9% (93)
By Period
Stepan
Aho
P1
46.3%
45.9%
P2
50.4%
48.0%
P3
46.3%
41.5%
OT
55.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.7%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2018 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 3 | 09:26 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 2 | 09:52 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 1 | 13:12 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 1 | 09:38 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |