Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 45.1% vs Crosby 50.1% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 67.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 71.0%
Neutral zone
Stepan 67.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 68.1%
68.1%
31.9%
Stepan
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Stepan
Crosby
Last 9: Stepan 3-6 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
2
Stepan
Crosby
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Crosby
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
4
Stepan
Crosby
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (680)
49.3% (335)
-4.4%
Power Play
50.8% (118)
54.7% (106)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
29.8% (57)
28.6% (7)
+1.2%
On even strength, Crosby has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Stepan is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (620).
Stepan shoots right. Crosby is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (158).
Home / Away
Stepan
Crosby
Home
45.6% (463)
57.1% (240)
Away
43.3% (404)
42.3% (213)
By Period
Stepan
Crosby
P1
50.2%
55.0%
P2
39.4%
46.3%
P3
45.7%
50.0%
OT
38.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.2%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.5%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2012 | 3 | 00:19 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 5, 2012 | 2 | 14:42 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 5, 2012 | 2 | 05:11 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 5, 2012 | 1 | 06:42 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 3 | 01:31 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 2 | 01:24 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 2 | 01:19 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 29, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 29, 2011 | 1 | 19:05 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |