Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Crosby 52.8% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 76.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 75.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 51.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Stepan
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Stepan
Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Crosby
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Crosby
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
52.5% (1,443)
+2.8%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
54.7% (369)
-54.7%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
55.9% (34)
-5.1%
On power play, Crosby has a +54.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Stepan shoots right. Crosby is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (647).
Home / Away
Stepan
Crosby
Home
57.7% (213)
53.0% (931)
Away
50.7% (209)
53.0% (915)
By Period
Stepan
Crosby
P1
56.3%
50.3%
P2
48.9%
55.4%
P3
57.1%
53.3%
Final 5 min
57.6%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 05:24 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 2 | 09:02 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 19:59 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 04:07 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |