Scouting Report
T.J. Oshie holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Oshie on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Oshie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.2% vs Oshie 48.9% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Oshie 64.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 80.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 56.1%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Stepan
Oshie
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Stepan
Oshie
Last 6: Stepan 2-4 Oshie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Oshie
0
3
Stepan
Oshie
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Oshie
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Oshie
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (1,155)
41.4% (58)
+6.8%
Power Play
48.2% (193)
53.0% (117)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (174)
20.0% (5)
+17.9%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Oshie shoots right. Stepan is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (458).
Stepan shoots right. Oshie is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (24).
Home / Away
Stepan
Oshie
Home
46.4% (774)
57.6% (85)
Away
47.7% (748)
40.0% (95)
By Period
Stepan
Oshie
P1
46.7%
37.7%
P2
46.3%
52.4%
P3
48.1%
54.8%
OT
47.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.0%
Oshie
32.0%▼
43.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2017 | 2 | 13:09 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Apr 5, 2017 | 1 | 09:52 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 19, 2017 | 3 | 12:34 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Feb 19, 2017 | 3 | 06:48 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 3 | 13:27 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 2 | 07:43 | Defensive | T.J. Oshie |